Setting the Winner Chance for Your Campaign

When planning a campaign, it’s important to set a realistic winner chance based on the expected number of participants and the number of prizes available.

How to Calculate the Winner Chance

The general formula is:

Winner Chance (%) = Expected Number of Participants / Number of Prizes ​× 100

Examples:

• 5 winners, 200 participants:

5 / 200×100=2.5%

• 10 winners, 200 participants:

10 / 200 × 100 = 5%

• 20 winners, 200 participants:

20 / 200×100=10

⚠️ This calculation gives the expected number of winners in this example; actual results may vary slightly depending on campaign, participant behavior and timing.

Best Practice

We recommend reaching out before your campaign goes live to confirm the optimal winner chance. This helps ensure the number of winners matches your goals and expectations.

It doesn’t need to be a meeting—simply send an email with:

• Campaign name/ID
• Expected number of participants
• Prizes

We will review the information and provide a recommended winner chance.

Distributing Winner Chance Across Multiple Prizes

If your campaign includes multiple prizes, the total winner chance can't exceed 100% (ask us for help if this is needed). You should distribute the chance across each prize according to their value and strategic goals.

Example Distribution:

• Highest-value prize: 10% (kept low so it doesn’t run out too quickly)
• Second-tier prize: 15–20%
• Consolation prize (e.g., 10% discount code): 30%

💬 Need Help?

If you experience any issues or need assistance with setup, winner chance, live tests, or anything else, don’t hesitate to reach out to a Customer Success representative at Scratcher.

Updated on: 12/01/2026